The Economist has an article exploring whether the threat of online piracy is receding. From what I can tell the music industry still has a long way to go to win the fight:
But the fact that more people are willing to buy music online than seemed likely does not mean that the industry’s problems are anywhere near over. In the next five years, says Informa Media Group, a media information publisher, digital sales of à la carte downloads and subscription services will grow 20-fold. But they will account for only $1.8 billion, or under 6%, of the global music market. Peer-to-peer file sharing will deprive the industry of $4.7 billion of revenues in 2008.
For impecunious teenagers and students, the fact that peer-to-peer sharing is free will always be compelling. Paying 99 cents for a song on iTunes, says one British teen, is unappealing because at that price she may as well buy the CD in a shop. Nor do the new services yet come close to matching the libraries of nearly all music ever recorded that the peer-to-peers boast.
To glimpse the future, big music companies should look not at iTunes’ encouraging numbers but at September’s price cut by Universal Music Group, the biggest record company of all, which reduced CD prices for consumers by nearly a quarter. One reason for slumping music sales is that customers believe that CDs cost too much. Now, other firms will have to lower prices to compete with Universal. Discount stores such as Wal-Mart, Circuit City and Best Buy will drive them down more.
The success of iTunes has made clear to the music industry an uncomfortable truth: many people want to buy single tracks, not albums. Apple’s data show that its customers bought 12 singles for every one album at iTunes. That compares with 0.02 singles per album in American stores, according to research by Sanford Bernstein. The best artists may tempt people to buy a whole album. But the industry can no longer rely on getting the price of an album as a reward for backing a band.
In the end, says Moby, an influential musician, the record industry will have to throw out its current business model. It will no longer be able to make huge profit margins on CDs that cost next to nothing to manufacture. To compensate for lower prices, he says, the industry needs to cut its marketing for artists by as much as four-fifths. Once the record companies have less marketing clout, and with internet distribution, says Moby, artists will be in a powerful position. “Why”, he asks, “is a record company any more qualified to send an MP3 to iTunes than I am?” [read the entire article]
One thing’s for sure: this is gonna be a very interesting space to watch. Funny how Apple does the innovation then others come in to capitalize on Apple’s work. Now I’m hearing that MTV and Wal-Mart are looking to start their own music downloading services. Hopefully Apple can hold them off.
(via The Big Picture)
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